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Russia’s use of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Thursday is the latest escalation in the Ukraine war. It also marks a decisive, and potentially dangerous moment in Moscow’s conflict with the West. The use of what Vladimir Putin said was a ballistic missile with multiple warheads in offensive combat is a clear departure from decades of the Cold War doctrine of deterrence. Ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, known as “multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles,” or MIRVs, have never been used to strike an enemy, experts say. “To my knowledge, yes, it’s the first time MIRV has been used in combat,” Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said. Aftermath of Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, on November 21, 2024. Ukrinform/Cover Images/AP Ballistic missiles have been the underpinning of deterrence, offering what is known as “mutual assured destruction,” or MAD, in the nuclear age. The thinking is, if even a few missiles survive a nuclear first strike, there will be enough firepower left in the opponent’s arsenal to wipe out several major cities of the aggressor, therefore ensuring neither side is unable to escape the consequences of nuclear actions. In that vein, ballistic missiles were designed to stand sentinel over a future where nuclear arms would never again be fired in anger. But analysts, including Kristensen, argue that MIRVed missiles may invite, rather than deter, a first strike. The highly destructive capacity of MIRVs means that they are both potential first-strike weapons and first-strike targets, Kristensen and colleague Matt Korda at the Federation of American Scientists wrote in a study published in March. That’s because, it’s easier to destroy multiple warheads before they are launched, than try to shoot them down as they are dropping at hypersonic speed on their targets. And according to a recent posting from the Union of Concerned Scientists, a US-based nonprofit science advocacy organization, this creates a “use them or lose them” type scenario — an incentive to strike first in a time of crisis. “Otherwise, a first strike attack that destroyed a country’s MIRVed missiles would disproportionately damage that country’s ability to retaliate,” said the posting. Videos of Thursday’s Russian strike showed the multiple warheads falling at different angles on the target, and each warhead would need to be defeated with an anti-missile rocket, a daunting prospect even for the best air defense systems. And while the warheads dropped on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday were not nuclear, their use in conventional combat operations is certain to raise new uncertainty in a world already on edge. Importantly, Russia alerted the United States to the use of the missile fired Thursday beforehand. But even with that advanced warning, any further launches by Putin’s regime will now inevitably ratchet up fears across Europe, with many asking the question: Has deterrence just died? Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson ordered not to discuss reported ICBM strike during news conference The world MIRVs It is not only Russia and the United States that have MIRV technology. China has it on its intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation, and the United Kingdom and France, along with Russia and the US, have long had MIRV technology on their submarine-launched ballistic missiles. And there are new players in the MIRV game, too. Pakistan reportedly tested a missile with multiple warheads in 2017, and earlier this year India said it had successfully tested a MIRVed ICBM. Analysts worry about land-based MIRVs more than those on subs. That’s because subs are stealthy and hard to detect. Land-based missiles, especially those in stationary silos, are more easily found and therefore are more tempting targets. In their March report, Kristensen and Korda wrote about the perils of the expanding MIRV club, calling it “a sign of a larger worrisome trend in worldwide nuclear arsenals” and an “emerging nuclear arms race.” Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/22/europe/russia-mirv-deterrence-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

ISPR says two terrorists also injured in intelligence-based operation The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said on Friday that security forces have killed three terrorists during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in District Bannu. The military’s media wing, in a statement, said that the IBO took place in the early hours of Friday with not only terrorists or “khwarij” being killed, but two also sustaining injuries. The ISPR mentioned that the forces recovered weapons, ammunition, and explosives from the terrorists, who remained actively involved in numerous terrorist activities against security forces as well as target killing of innocent civilians. The military’s media wing added that the sanitisation operation was being carried out to eliminate any other khwarij found in the area, as the security forces are determined to wipe out the menace of terrorism from the country. The operation comes days after terrorists martyred at least 12 security personnel in a suicide attack in the same Khyber Pakhtunkhwa district of Bannu, the ISPR said, while six terrorists were killed. The country has been reeling under a spike in terror attacks on security forces and civilians — especially in KP and Balochistan. As per a report by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), the third quarter of 2024 saw a 90% increase in fatalities linked to terrorist violence and counterterrorism operations. The report recorded 722 deaths and 615 injuries in 328 incidents, with KP and Balochistan accounting for 97% of fatalities. Meanwhile, President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif paid tribute to the security forces for carrying out a successful operation in Bannu to eliminate terrorists. In their separately issued statements, both the president and prime minister lauded the gallantry of the security forces for killing three terrorists and arresting another two in injured condition. President Zardari reiterated the resolve that the security forces would continue their action till the complete elimination of terrorists. “We will continue to thwart the evil designs of these enemies of humanity. The government is fully resolved to purge the country of terrorism,” Prime Minister Shehbaz said and vowed to continue the anti-terror fight till the elimination of this scourge.Source: https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1253821-forces-eliminate-three-terrorists-in-bannu-operation

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/11/22/live-palestine-welcomes-war-crimes-arrest-warrants-for-israeli-leaders

Fighting Politics and diplomacy Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/18/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-997

A “remote-controlled” bomb blast has claimed the life of one person and wounded five others in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s South Waziristan district, police said on Sunday. The wounded persons have been shifted to the District Headquarters (DHQ) Hospital, Wana, after the bomb blast rocked Azam Warsak bazaar in the tribal district, the police added. The martyred man was identified as Mufti Ejazul Haq while the wounded persons include Saddam, Shah Hussain, Noor Hussain, Zain Ullah, and Maulana Shahzada Wazir. Maulana Shahzada was seriously injured in the blast, and the condition of some of the injured is also critical, according to Deputy Medical Superintendent Dr Fazlur Rehman. The injured are being treated at the DHQ Hospital and an emergency has been declared in the hospital by the authorities. Two injured were shifted to Dera Ismail Khan in critical condition for further treatment. Station House Officer (SHO) Usman Wazir of Azam Warsak Police Station confirmed the incident and stated that unidentified persons had planted a remote control bomb near the mosque. The police have started investigating the incident, sources told Geo News. Pakistan continues to battle militancy as terrorist activities spiked across the country, especially in KP and Balochistan, since the Taliban takeover of bordering Afghanistan. As per a report issued by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), third quarter (July-September) of 2024 saw a sharp increase in fatalities of terrorist violence and counter-terrorism campaigns, with a 90% surge in violence. A total of 722 people were killed, including civilians, security personnel, and outlaws, while 615 others were wounded in as many as 328 incidents recorded during the period under review. Nearly 97% of these fatalities occurred in KP and Balochistan — marking the highest percentage in a decade, and over 92% of these incidents of terror attacks and security forces’ operations were recorded in the same provinces. Source: https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1252028-remote-controlled-bomb-blast-kills-one-injures-5-in-south-waziristan

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/11/18/live-israeli-attacks-kill-111-in-gaza-as-pope-calls-for-genocide-inquiry

Here is the situation on Saturday, November 16: Fighting Politics and diplomacy Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/16/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-995

Punjab continues to struggle with a deepening smog crisis as various cities remain engulfed in grey smog, with Lahore and Multan topping the air pollution rankings on Saturday. The region is grappling with its annual winter air pollution, exacerbated in recent years by a combination of cold air that traps dust and harmful emissions, low-grade diesel fumes, and smoke from illegal crop residue burning.  The situation has been worsening in recent months, with the capital city consistently reporting deteriorating air quality levels. Air quality in Lahore was deemed “hazardous” as the AQI reached 766 around 9am, according to data by IQAir, with the concentration of deadly PM2.5 pollutants — fine particulate matter in the air that causes most damage to health — around 87.4 times the level deemed acceptable by the World Health Organisation.  Meanwhile, Multan remained the most polluted city in the country, in terms of air quality, despite a decline in the AQI compared to the extremely high smog levels recorded during the past week. The AQI in the southern Punjab city was 396 around 9am, which is well within the hazardous range. Karachi, on the other hand, had the sixth worst air quality in the world, with an AQI of 188, which is deemed “unhealthy” by the Swiss group, IQ Air. Traffic disruptions The hazardous smog has severely impacted daily life, with poor visibility, disrupted traffic flow, and health concerns plaguing residents. Dense fog has significantly reduced visibility, causing major arteries to close for traffic. M4 Motorway was blocked from Multan to Toba Tek Singh, while M5 Motorway was blocked from Multan to Sukkur. The district administration has said all markets across the city will remain closed for two days this weekend — Saturday and Sunday. Moreover, leaves of medical staff have been cancelled after health emergency was imposed in Lahore and Multan. Major traffic disruptions were also reported from Kamalia, Orgarra, Gujrat, Kot Addu and surrounding areas, as drivers faced hazardous conditions due to extremely low visibility. In an unfortunate incident, a man died after being hit by a trailer near Rojhan Miani Phatak area in Rajanpur, police said, blaming the accident on smog and low visibility. With no immediate relief in sight, residents have been advised to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary travel. In response to the worsening air quality, the provincial government has extended school closures in Lahore for another week to protect students from exposure to the dangerous air. Local authorities have also declared a health emergency in Lahore and Multan, the two cities that are most affected by the ongoing pollution crisis. Hospitals in both cities are on high alert, with an increase in respiratory issues and other smog-related health problems. Lahore has topped Swiss group IQAir readings as the world’s most polluted city, for most of the week. The province, home to more than half of Pakistan’s 240 million people, last week closed all schools until November 17 in major cities enveloped by smog. Colleges and universities were also ordered shut down, moving to virtual classes. The authorities have also banned construction, extended schools’ closure for another week and shifting all educational institutions to online classes.  Meanwhile, entry to parks, zoos, playgrounds and other public spaces also remained restricted. As the smog continues to smother the country, authorities are urging citizens to wear masks and limit outdoor activities. Other parts of South Asia are also dealing with high levels of pollution and Punjab blames neighbouring India for contributing to its hazardous air quality. New Delhi, the world’s second most polluted capital, has banned non-essential construction, moved children to virtual classrooms and asked residents to avoid using coal and wood from Friday. Source: https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1251646-punjab-struggles-as-lahores-air-quality-hits-hazardous-levels

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/11/16/live-who-chief-slams-israels-killing-of-12-paramedics-in-lebanon-strike

Valencia and Madrid, Spain – When flash floods swept through Valencia, priceless family mementoes were destroyed as waters engulfed Marilo Grandoli’s ground-floor flat. But, despite this, Grandoli feels fortunate. “We lost things like the card which showed when my great grandfather opened his food shop in 1915, my school homework and family photographs,” she told Al Jazeera. “These were precious to us. But there are other families who have lost relatives. They have lost far more.” The 52-year-old journalist, who lives in Catarroja, one of the worst affected areas of Valencia where 28 people died, says she is still in shock, more than two weeks after the floods. Now, fears are rising again across Spain as more rainstorms threaten to overflow rivers. On Wednesday, Aemet, the state weather forecaster, issued red alerts for Malaga, where thousands have been evacuated, and Tarragona in Catalonia. An amber alert, the second highest level, was issued for Valencia. On Thursday, though alerts were not issued for Malaga, heavy rain is expected in parts of the Valencia region. These do not include the areas worst affected by the floods on October 29. Some Spaniards have covered their cars in plastic and tied them to lampposts in preparation. “I don’t know what day of the week it is, whether it is Monday or Tuesday,” said Grandoli. Like thousands of other Valencians, her life was turned upside down on October 29 when flash floods devastated the city. At least 223 people died and 23 are still missing. As a mammoth cleanup operation continues, Grandoli says she feels a mixture of anger, gratitude and determination. “I feel anger towards the politicians, but gratitude to the volunteers and the public services for the way they have helped clear up. The Valencian people will recover,” she said. The ire of many people has been directed at Carlos Mazon, the Valencian regional president, whose administration issued a red alert to residents’ mobile phones at 8.11pm on the day of the floods, hours after the villages and suburbs of the city started witnessing the devastation. Aemet had issued a red alert warning at 7.31am on the day of the downpour, 12 hours before the Valencian authorities. Mazon, who will appear before the Valencian parliament on Friday to explain his administration’s decisions, told reporters on Monday that “errors may have been committed” and “everyone” would be obliged to review them. ‘He has the blood of so many people on his hands’ Tens of thousands of people called for Mazon’s resignation at an angry demonstration on Saturday in Valencia, with protesters plastering the Valencian government building in mud. Eulalia Gregori held aloft a homemade sign showing an upside Mazon with devil’s horns. “Go to hell where you belong, you left us with blood on your hands,” reads the poster. “Mazon should be the one who pays for this disaster. He has the blood of so many people on his hands, yet he spent his time denying he did anything wrong,” Gregori, 38, a teacher, who lives in Valencia, told Al Jazeera. “I did not lose a brother or a father in the floods and my house is not covered in mud, but we are all together in this.” A Valencian government spokesman sent Al Jazeera a statement saying a series of warnings were issued to residents before the floods. On the day of the disaster, it said, it was not informed in time of the danger of flooding by the state-run hydrological authority, which is responsible for water management in the area. Others have directed their anger at the Spanish government for failing to deliver aid to the region faster. Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/14/i-feel-anger-spain-braces-for-more-storms-after-deadly-flash-floods